Scientific Program ESOBE 2012

Thursday, November 1st

08:30-09:00	Registration
09:00-09:15	Opening
09:15-10:15	Keynote Lecture (Chair: Herman K. van Dijk) Xiao-Li Meng (Harvard University): I got more data, my model is more refined, but my estimator is getting worse! Am I just dumb?
10:15-10:45	Coffee Break
10:45-12:15	Sparse Econometric Modelling (Chair: Gianni Amisano) Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland): Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs (coauthored by Dimitris Korobilis) Sylvia Kaufmann (Study Center Gerzensee, Switzerland): Dynamic sparse factor model (coauthored by Christian Schumacher) Helga Wagner (Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria): Sparse Bayesian modelling of treatment effects on panel outcomes - Analysis of Labor Market Effects of a Mother’s Time spent at Home after Childbirth (coauthored by Liana Jacobi and Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter)
12:15-13:30	Lunch
13:30-15:00	Applied Econometrics (Chair: Helga Wagner) James LeSage (Texas State University, San Marcos, USA): A Bayesian approach to identifying and interpreting regional convergence clubs in Europe (coauthored by Manfred Fischer) Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School, Norway): Evidence on Features and Sources of EMU Business Cycles using Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR (coauthored by Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin and Herman K. van Dijk) Michel Lubrano (AMSE-GREQAM, France): Bayesian Unconditional Quantile Regression: An analysis of recent expansions in wage structure and earnings inequality in the U.S. 1992-2009 (coauthored by Abdoul Aziz and Junior Ndoye)
15:00-15:30	Coffee Break
15:30-17:45	Young Researcher Presentations with Panel Discussion (Chair: Gary Koop) Yong Song (University of Technology, Sydney, Australia): A New Multivariate Model with an Unknown Number of Change-points (coauthored by John Maheu) Eric Eisenstat (University of Bucharest, Rumania): Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs (coauthored by Joshua Chan and Rodney Strachan) Francesca Rondina (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE, Spain): Time Varying SVARs, parameter histories and the changing impact of oil prices on the US economy Cem Cakmakli (University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands): Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Weak Identification, Regime Shifts and Technological Change (coauthored by Nalan Bastürk, Pinar Ceyhan and Herman K. van Dijk)
Panel Discussants: Gianni Amisano, James Heckman, Sylvia Kaufmann, Francesco Ravazzolo
18:00-21:00	Poster Session with Reception and Buffet Dinner Poster list available here

Friday, November 2nd

09:15-10:15	Keynote Lecture (Chair: Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter) James J. Heckman (University of Chicago, USA): Causal Analysis After Haavelmo: Definitions and a Unified Analysis of Identification
10:15-10:45	Coffee Break
10:45-12:15	Methodology (Chair: Nalan Basturk) Gianni Amisano (European Central Bank, Germany): Prediction Using Several Macroeconomic Models (coauthored by John Geweke) Leopold Sögner (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria): Bayesian Parameter Estimation and Identification of Al(m)-Affine Term Structure Models Aart F. de Vos (Free University Amsterdam, The Netherlands): How to use the p-value in decision making (I seem to have too little paint in my cans, it is significant, what should I do?)
12:15-13:30	Lunch
13:30-14:30	Keynote Lecture (Chair: Gary Koop) Omiros Papaspiliopoulos (ICREA and Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain): Sequential inference for parameters and hidden states using particle methods
14:30-15:00	Sampling Methods Michael Braun (MIT, USA): Generalized Direct Sampling for Hierarchical Bayesian Models (coauthored by Paul Damien)
15:00-15:30	Coffee Break
15:30-17:45	Young Researcher Presentations with Panel Discussion (Chair: Herman K. van Dijk) Lutz Gruber (Technische Universität München, Germany): Bayesian Model Selection for Regular Vine Copulas Using Reversible Jump MCMC (coauthored by Claudia Czado and Jakob Stöber) István Barra (Free University Amsterdam, The Netherlands): Bayesian analysis of nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models: the joint independent Metropolis-Hastings method (coauthored by Lennart Hoogerheide, Siem Jan Koopman and André Lucas) Eleni-ioanna Delatola A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Volatility with a Leverage Effect (coauthored by Jim Griffin) Rémi Piatek (University of Chicago, USA): Bayesian Dedicated Factor Analysis: A Framework for Understanding the Social and Economic Determinants of Adult Health and Wages (coauthored by Gabriella Conti, Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter and James J. Heckman)
Panel Discussants: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, Xiao-Li Meng, Omiros Papaspiliopoulos
20:00-	Conference Dinner